As global tensions rise, traders are increasingly wagering on war, regime change, and political upheaval through online prediction markets. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have seen a surge in activity tied to geopolitical outcomes, from military strikes in the Middle East to leadership changes around the world.
An Investopedia review of two dozen geopolitics-related contracts on the platforms found more than $110 million in total wagers. Popular questions include whether Israel will strike Iran, whether the U.S. will invade Venezuela, and which world leaders could be out of power before 2027—alongside more routine bets on sports and the S&P 500.
The most heavily traded contract asks whether the U.S. will invade Venezuela, generating over $10.5 million in volume on Polymarket. Meanwhile, bets tied to a possible Israeli strike on Iran and leadership changes in Caracas have also drawn millions. Interest spiked after a trader reportedly earned $400,000 betting against Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Supporters argue these markets “harness the wisdom of the crowd,” while critics warn that betting on conflict blurs ethical lines—especially as real-world violence and political instability intensify.